Dreams and realities-A battle over American-led free trade brews in Asia

Barack Obama recently signed a ground-breaking free-trade agreement (FTA) with South Korea, after years of Washington foot-dragging. He signed FTAs with Colombia and Panama on the same day. On November 12th-13th the president hosts an Asia-Pacific trade jamboree in Honolulu which, he seems to hope, will give momentum to the idea of a remarkably ambitious free-trade zone at just the time when global trade talks are going nowhere.

Mr Obama’s plans hang on negotiations for a little-known but rather liberal trade grouping, called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). These will take place on the sidelines of the annual summit of APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation), a gathering long famed for its waffling. Currently, TPP members number only four small economies: Brunei, Chile, New Zealand and Singapore. But over the past year America, Australia, Malaysia, Peru and Vietnam have made progress in talks to join the club.

Were America a member, its trade with its eight fellow TPP members would amount to little more than 5% of all its foreign trade. But some quietly hope that the TPP will serve as a “docking station” for an APEC-wide free-trade area. That would further move the global centre of economic gravity from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific.

An announcement was expected after The Economist went to press that will heavily influence such an outcome. In Japan the prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda, was expected to declare that his government would join the TPP talks, despite strong reservations even from within his own party. Japan’s share of America’s trade, at 5.6%, exceeds that of all the current TPP partners put together. A combination of American and Japanese heft could, say TPP advocates, entice other countries, such as Canada, to join the group. Even China, where some are deeply suspicious about the project, might eventually feel compelled to join. Read more the Economist