Tuesday, February 7, 2012

IMF Urges Beijing to Prepare Stimulus


China should be prepared to sharply stimulate its economy if Europe's growth falls more than anticipated, the International Monetary Fund said, adding to expectations that Beijing could turn to spending if conditions significantly worsen.

In its China economic outlook report released on Monday, the IMF urged China to run a deficit of 2% of GDP rather than looking to reduce the country's deficit as planned, given the uncertainty in the global economy.

If Europe's problems turned out to be worse than expected, China should hit the fiscal gas pedal harder. In that case, "China should respond with a significant fiscal package" of about 3% of GDP, the IMF said, including reductions in consumption taxes and new subsidies for consumer-goods purchases and for corporate investments in pollution-control equipment.

However, the IMF warned that Beijing should execute any fresh stimulus through its budget rather than the banking system. China used a four trillion yuan, or about $635 billion, stimulus package in 2008 to help blunt the impact of the financial crisis, in large part through bank lending. Economists now worry China's response to new economic threats could be hobbled if a significant slowdown in growth leads to bad debt on the balance sheets of China's major state-controlled banks.

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